Likely Impact on the 19CANQ Electorates as a Consequence of Election 2024 Results and Scheduled Electoral Boundary Review
This editorial primarily provides a comparison of the 2020 and 2024 Queensland State Elections results and the factors that will likely be relevant in respect to the 2028 State Election. Additionally, there will be an Electoral Boundary Review and subsequent Electoral Boundary Redistribution prior to the next election.
Since the last redistribution was enacted, prior to the 2017 election through to 30th November 2024 more than 517,000 voters have been added to the Queensland electoral roll. Accordingly, there will need to be significant redrawing of electoral boundaries which will impact on the 2028 State Election.
2024 Election saw a major swing to the LNP after a three term ALP government. The LNP secured a majority government, increasing its seats from 35 to 52 in the 93 seat parliament. The statewide swing to the LNP was 5.63%
The ALP fell from 51 to 36 seats, while the disendorsed, two term member for MIRANI was not re-elected, leaving PHON without a seat, the Greens lost the seat of South Brisbane to the ALP, leaving them with the single seat of MAIWAR, the KAP retained their three North Queensland seats and the NOOSA independent retained her seat.
The number of enrolled voters for the 2024 State Election was 3,683,368 compared with 3,377,476 in the 2020 State Election, an increase of 305,892. While in the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 enrolled voter numbers increased from 3,181,148 to 3,699,013, an increase of 517,865. Accordingly, the average number of enrolled voters (voter quota) across the 93 Electorates rose from 34,206 to 39,774 an increase of 5,568.
Prior to the 2028 State there will be a there will be an Electoral Boundary Review and subsequent Electoral Boundary Redistribution which will have to address the issue of some 600,000 voters being added randomly across the 93 electorates. The State Electoral Boundary Redistribution is addressed in detail at pages 8 through 11.
The political landscape of the 19 electorates of CANQ, post the 2024 Election, much resembles that of 2012, even more so with the historic ALP loses of MACKAY and ROCKHAMPTON. The ALP influence plummeted from 11 to 2 seats, the two term PHON member for MIRANI lost his seat to the LNP while the KAP retained their three seats. The LNP now hold 14 of the 19 CANQ electorates.
The LNP primary vote in the 19 CANQ electorates increased by 53,621 from 168,374 (29.44%) in 2020 to 221,995 (37.16%) in 2024 while the ALP fell by 45,979 from 200,001 (35.45%) to 154,022 (25.78%). The GREENS primary vote increased by 3,765 from 27,963 (4.96%) to 31,728 (6.24%).
PHON fielded candidates in all 19 CANQ electorates in 2024, three (3) more than in 2020 increasing its primary voted by 15,369, from 48,149 (8.53%) to 63,518 (10.63%). KAP contested 11 electorates in 2024, one more than in 2020, increasing it primary vote by 7,586 from 66,187 (11.73%) to 75,773 (12.68%). Almost, all the gain in the 2024 KAP vote can be attributed the disendorsed PHON MIRANI incumbent who contested the electorate as the KAP candidate.
The number of CANQ19 enrolled voters for the 2024 State Election was 709,257 compared with 655,968 in the 2020 State Election, an increase of 53,289. While for the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 enrolled voter numbers increased from 628,842 to 712,053, an increase of 83,211. Accordingly, the average number of enrolled voters (voter quota) across the 19 CANQ Electorates rose from 33,097 to 37,219 an increase of 4,380 compared to the overall statewide average increase of 5,568.
Refer to Attachment A, REXIT.AU CANQ19 Party Primary Votes Elections 2020 and 2024
Overall, in the 19 CANQ the ALP primary vote fell from 200,001 (35.45%) in 2020 to 154,022 (24.21%) in 2024. The ALP lost 9 of their 11 CANQ electorates to the LNP and now only hold the electorates of CAIRNS and GLADSTONE, both with reduced margins. While the statewide swing against the ALP was 5.63%, in those 11 CANQ electorates, the swing ranged from -3.11% to -16.93% for an average off -11.24%.
Of the nine (9) CANQ electorates lost to the LNP, five (5) have margins of less than 5% while three (3) of those have margins of less than 2%. Historically, since the return of ‘one vote, one value’ in 1989 the ALP has held sway in CANQ. Anything less than a spectacular performance by the LNP government will likely see a significant swing back to the ALP.
The LNP took nine (9) of the 19 CANQ electorates from the ALP, together with seat of MIRANI from the two term recently disendorsed PHON member who ran as a KAP candidate. Post election, the LNP hold 14 of the 19 CANQ electorates. With historic wins in both Rockhampton and Mackay this is a better result than the LNP achieved in the Newman landslide of 2012. Overall, their primary vote increased from 168,374 (29.84%) to 221,995 (37.16%) for a of 8.0% swing compared to the statewide swing of 5.65%.
With the LNP holding 52 seats, a united 14seat bloc of CANQ members can effectively pressure the party to deliver for our regions. In fact, dissatisfaction that causes six (6) members of this bloc to move to the cross bench would result in a minority government. Unlike the 12 CANQ LNP members of the 78 seat Newman government, Crisafulli cannot tell them to ‘sit down and shut up’ because he needs their support to maintain a majority government.
Whether these 14 LNP MPs are going to be representatives of their constituents or mere mouthpieces of their Brisbane masters is yet to be seen. However, with 10 of the 14 never before gracing the halls of parliament, it would be reasonable that without exceptional leadership, they will be reticent to test the strength of their united power.
The 2015 Election saw voters savage the one term Newman LNP government reducing its 78 seats to 42. None of the then newly elected CANQ LNP MPs survived the backlash. This could easily be the fate of many of 14 CANQ members if the LNP government fails to deliver on juvenile crime, burgeoning debt and the Olympic Games build. Accordingly, they will need to deliver some big-ticket items for their regions or create some lasting legacy for their constituents to cement their chance of re-election.
In securing a successful New State Referendum for the million residents of Central and North Queensland, the 14 CANQ LNP MPs would, not only create a legacy but a place in Australia’s political history. Both the Commonwealth and Queensland already recognize NORTHERN QUEENSLAND under Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility Act 2016. It is identified by the Queensland Treasury document (https://www.treasury.qld.gov.au/programs-and-policies/northern-australia-infrastructure-facility/). Accordingly, there is no need to agonize over determining its viability or borders.
Initiating the process to successfully deliver statehood for Northern Queensland, would no doubt create an immense level of support for the individual members and the party in the new state. Support that would likely endure for decades as it is freed from the burden of Brisbane generated legislation, to having a government that is responsive and accountable to only the constituents of Central and North Queensland.
The GREENS again ran candidates in all 19 CANQ electorates, increasing their primary vote from 27,891 (4.69%) to 31,728 (5.31%) bring them back to their performance in the 2017 election. In growth electorates such as BARRON RIVER and MULGRAVE their primary vote fell noticeably while it increased by more than 30% in TRAEGER, BURDEKIN and MIRANI though on the back of very low numbers while WHITSUNDAY, MACKAY and ROCKHAMPTON made similar gains from a higher base number. GLADSTONE was a standout with a 70% gain.
These larger gains may be the result of some typical ALP voters casting a protest vote, comfortable in the knowledge that their preference would flow back to Labor. Until such time that a GREENS candidate gets in a position of having a chance of winning an electorate, it remains ‘a vote for the GREENS is a vote for LABOR’.
Across the 19 CANQ electorates, PHON ran 16 candidates in 2020 and 19 in 2024, increasing their primary vote from 48,149 (8.53%) in 2020 to 63,518 (10.63%) in 2024. However, this improvement was still well short of the 104,878 (19.0%) primary votes they won in the 2017 election.
PHON disendorsed their only MP, the member for MIRANI in the months preceding the election. They ran a female candidate who had contested the electorate of COOK in the 2020 election and their primary vote fell from 9,320 (31.97%) to 3,804 (11.87%). The incumbent MP contested the electorate as a KAP candidate, securing 8,017 (25.02%) primary votes.
PHON dependence on simply rolling out its brand come election time is no longer enough for voters and their supporters who are ignore for years at a time between elections. They have no intention of taking any input from their membership or establishing local branches. PHON seems more an exclusive club of two (2) rather than a political party.
The KAP ran candidates in 10 CANQ electorates in 2020 and 11 in 2024, increasing their primary vote from 66,187 (11.73%) to 75,773 (12.68%). However, there is little to cheer about regarding this increase of 9,586 primary votes as 8,017 can be directly attributed to the disendorsed PHON incumbent MP who contested the electorate of MIRANI as the KAP candidate who failed in his re-election bid by 620 votes in the 2PP count.
The KAP remains corralled in ‘Katter Country’ as their state electorate successes, for most part fall within Bob Katter’s federal electorate of Kennedy. They again retained their three (3) North Queensland electorates of TRAEGER, HILL and HINCHINBROOK.
It appears the ‘Katter’ brand has reached peak market penetration and still has difficulty securing quality candidates needed to break thought in the urban electorates of BARRON RIVER, CAIRNS, MULGRAVE, TOWNSVILLE, THURINGOWA and MUNDINGBURRA. They are not helped by the perception that they are aligned with the ALP, which with the selection of candidates that ran in the previous council election for the ALP Team Jenny Hill did nothing to allay that view.
Prior to the 2028 State Election, an Electoral Boundary Review and a subsequent Electoral Boundary Redistribution shall be undertaken. The Electoral Commission of Queensland website (https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/electoral-boundaries/state-electorate-redistributions), details that the next State redistribution will commence in 2025 and the review of Queensland’s electoral boundaries is required because 7.5 years have passed since the previous redistribution became final in 2017.
The Electoral Act 1992 has not been amended to account for the new four (4) year fixed terms and appointing the required independent Queensland Redistribution Commission (QRC) more than three (3) years before its determinations can be implement by the 2028 election, seems illogical. We are hopeful that some common sense will prevail the review will commence in the second half of 2027 and be finalized by mid-2028, with the redistribution being gazetted prior to the issue of writs for the October 2028 State Election.
In the seven (7) years since the November 2017 State Election, which for the first time provided for the election of 93 members to the Queensland Parliament, till November 2024 an additional 517,865 Queensland voters have enrolled. This equates to an average of 73,980 additional voters per year.
With 99,560 additional enrolled voters in 2022 and a further 89,919 in 2023, it was predicted that by mid-2027 that the ECQ would have to make adjustments to provide for about 750,000 additional enrolled voters, dispersed randomly across the 93 electorates. However, with the decline to 53,647 in 2024, the total has been revised down to 630,000.
The 2017 Electoral Boundary Redistribution set a ‘voter quota’ of 33,168 based on the the statewide average of total Queensland enrolled voters across a total of 93 electorates. For next redistribution the ‘voter quota’ will likely exceed 40,000 voters. Refer to Attachment B, REXIT.AU_QLD_93_Enrolled Voter Numbers_30NOV17-30NOV24 which is a spread sheet detailing annual increases in additional enrolled voter numbers for each of the 93 Queensland electorates for the 7years, 30NOV17-30NOV24.
While there is no requirement that the Electoral Boundary Review equalize all electorates to as near the state average as possible, they are however, obligated to set all electorates such that they can be expected to remain within + or – 10% of the District Average until the following review. As at 30th November 2024, 14 electorates exceeded the + or -10% tolerance, the 2016 Electoral Boundary Review failed its core objective.
With the exception of the sparsely populated Large Area Allowance electorates, the greatest variation in additional enrolled voters existed between COOMERA with 54,205 and STRETTON with 34,723, having Enrolled Voter Deviation from the District Average of +36.28% and -12.89% respectively. Refer to Attachment C, REXIT.AU_QLD_93_Voter Deviation_NOV17- NOV24 which is a spread sheet detailing increase in additional enrolled voter numbers and the change in the deviation from average for each of the 93 Queensland electorates between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24. It also details each electorate’s increase in voter enrolment numbers and difference from the state average as at 30NOV24.
14 electorates have already exceeded the + or -10% tolerance and another 41 trending such that it is reasonable to expect that they will exceed the tolerance prior to the 2035 review. Accordingly, the 2027 Electoral Boundary Review will need to adjust the boundaries of those 55 electorates, though realistically, the impact of those changes will undoubtedly cascade down too many other electorates.
The 2016 the Electoral Boundary Review was afforded the addition of four (4) electorates to assist with the redrawing of the boundaries impacted by population growth, especially in South East Queensland (SEQ). It was the first increases of parliamentary seats since 1986.
Historically, increases in the number parliamentary seats only occurs at intervals of 20-30years. Accordingly, the upcoming redistribution will likely have to be accomplished, solely by the significant redrawing of electoral boundaries.
Should the increase in additional enrolled voter numbers in SEQ be such that they necessitate that provision of additional electorates the subsequent abolition of regional electorates will be required. With the significant increase of additional enrolled voter numbers in the Wide Bay Regional any abolition of electorates will impact on Northern, Central and Southern Regional divisions.
In the seven (7) years since the November 2017 State Election, which for the first time provided for the election of 93 members to the Queensland Parliament, till November 2024 the enrolled voter numbers in the 19CANQ electorates rose from 628,842 to 712,053 an increase of 83, 211 voters. This equates to an average of 11,887 additional voters per year.
The average increase across the 19 CANQ electorates for the seven (7) year was 4,380 compared to the statewide average of 5,568. Refer to Attachment D, REXIT.AU_CANQ19_Enrolled Voter Numbers 30NOV17-30NOV24 which is a spread sheet detailing annual increases in additional enrolled voter numbers for each of the 19 CANQ electorates for the 7years, 30NOV17-30NOV24.
As at 30NOV24, two (2) of the 19 CANQ electorates exceeded the -10% tolerance, 13 are below the state average of enrolled voters and three (3) of those are at or approaching -8% and are trending negative such that they can be expected to exceed the -10% tolerance prior to the 2027 Electoral Boundary Review. A further three (3) trending negatively are likely to exceed the -10% tolerance before the following review, due in 2035. Refer to Attachment E, REXIT.AU CANQ19 Voter Deviation NOV17 - NOV24 which is a spread sheet detailing the increase in additional enrolled voter numbers and the change in the deviation from average for each of the 19CANQ electorates between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24. It also details each electorate’s increase in voter enrolment numbers and difference from the state average as at 30NOV24.
The six (6) CANQ electorates that have voter enrolments greater than the state average are also trending negatively and are not likely to be able to provide any offset for those CANQ electorates that have exceeded the -10% tolerance prior to the 2027 Electoral Boundary Review or those that can be expected to exceed the -10% tolerance by 2035.
The need to address high increase in SEQ and Wide Bay electorate additional enrolled voter numbers will cascade throughout regional Queensland, further exasperating the situation for CANQ.
In the likely event that the 2027 Electoral Boundary Review needs to provide SEQ with two (2) additional electorates, two (2) will have to be abolished across the Southern, Central and Northern regional divisions.
Alarmingly, the CANQ additional voter enrolment numbers for 2024 only totalled 4,882 down from 17,562 in 2022 and 22,566 in 2023. The CANQ 2024 electorate average was 257 while the statewide average was 577. Five (5) CANQ electorates had declines ranging from -19 to -354 and only four (4) exceeded state average. Refer to Attachment F, REXIT.AU CANQ19 Voter Annual Difference as at 30Nov23 and 30NOV24 which is a spread sheet detailing the peak of additional enrolled voter numbers in 2023 to the collapse in 2024.
Of the 19 CANQ electorates, 14 have voter enrolment numbers below the state average of 39,774, five (5) of which exceed -7%, with two (2) of those already exceeding -10%. If the decline experienced in 2024 is sustained and movement to the regions remains constrained by the limited housing supply, we can expect that, CANQ electorate additional enrolled voter numbers will further decline from the state average before the Electoral Boundary Review and into the future.
The trend in the North Queensland adjoining electorate cluster of TRAEGER, THURINGOWA, TOWNSVILLE, MUNDINGBURRA, BURDEKIN and MIRANI combined have fallen a further 13,456 enrolled voters short of the statewide average. With MUNDINGBURRA already outside the -10% tolerance and TRAEGER likely to exceed the limit by mid-2027 while TOWNSVILLE, THURINGOWA and BURDEKIN can reasonably be expected to exceed the -10% tolerance by 2035. With HINCHINBROOK at -1.36% and MIRANI at -5.92% tolerance, only the electorates of HILL (+5.36%) and MACKAY (+1.96%) could be adjusted to provide some remedy to the deteriorating situation of this cluster.
Whatever remedy the ECQ applies to address the situation in this cluster it will require significant alteration to their respective boundaries and the continued below average voter enrolment poses an ongoing problem. Accordingly, a long-term fix would require the abolition in one North Queensland electorate with the necessary redrawing of boundary. It would not be surprising to see THURINGOWA which has common boundaries with HINCHINBROOK, TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE, MUNDINGBURRA and BURDEKIN be abolished to provide a resolution for the deteriorating situation of the cluster.
While the ECQ identifies CALLIDE as a Central Queensland electorate, the majority of the electorate lies in the southern division. The township of Bell is only about 165km, as the crow flies, northwest of the Brisbane CBD. Additionally, with the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review prior to the 2028 Election, CALLIDE is the most likely electorate to be abolished to enable the creation of an additional seat in SEQ. CALLIDE borders seven electorates, WARREGO, GREGORY, MIRANI, GLADSTONE, BURNETT, MARYBOROUGH and NANANGO and in recent Electoral Boundary Reviews it has been routinely altered to extend its boundary far into the southern electoral region.
Regardless, even if the electorate of CALLIDE is retained in some form it is reasonable that the redrawing of its boundaries will see it lie fully in the Southern Electoral Division. Together with the likely loss of HINCHINBROOK, CANQ will be reduced to 17 electorates.
Voter participation continues to be problematic in the 19 CANQ electorates with some 105,822 of the 709,257 enrolled voters failing to cast a ballot in 2024. Though participation increased marginally from 83.59% in 2020 to 84.21% in 2024, there were significant declines in the three (3) Large Area Allowance electorates of COOK, GREGORY and TRARGER. KEPPEL again had the highest participation rate at 90.23% while COOK was replaced by TRAEGER as having the lowest, with 74.49%.
From election 2020 to 2024, COOK enrolled voters increased by 2,678 while the ballots cast only rose 326. In TRAEGER enrolled voters increased by 1,310 and extraordinarily, the number of ballots cast fell by 470. The members representing these two (2) electorates should be concerned by the decline in voter participation. Attachment G, REXIT.AU CANQ19 Enrolled Voters Cast Ballots Election 2020 and 2024 details the voter participation in each of the 19 CANQ electorates and the variation between the elections in 2020 and 2024.
The long, heavily publicized and divisive, 2023 Voice campaign resulted in a flood of additional voter registrations in the months prior to the Referendum. While it is to be expected that there would be an uptick in voter registration prior any election, there were notable anomalies in that number of electorates which had exceptional increases in voter registrations, though the overall additional voter registrations for the State declined by nearly 10,000 on the 2022 Federal Election number.
We have limited the review of the anomalies to the 19 CANQ electorate. Extraordinarily, in 2023 the average increase of additional enrolled voters was 1188 across the 19 CANQ electorates was higher the statewide average of 967. June 2023 increases were exceptional, with the majority of electorates recording nearly 50% of their annual total. COOK, CAIRNS and TRAEGER exceeded 80%.
Despite the uptick in additional enrolled voters, it did not translate to equivalent increases at the ballot box for the 2024 State Election and voter participation rates in ten (10) of the electorates declined markedly. MULGRAVE, TOWNSVILLE and GREGORY had declines in of in excess of 2% in their voter participation rates while the decline in COOK and TRAEGER exceeded 5%. While eight (8) electorates had participation rates of more than 2% below the state average of 87.74%, COOK and TRAEGER participation are 12% below the state average.
With the consistently low participation rate, one could reasonably be concerned with the integrity of the AEC Electoral Roll or at least its maintenance. The anomaly in the 2023 increase in enrolled voter numbers and the plummeting voter participation in the electorates should be of a concern to the members. At a minimum they should request the ECQ to verify the roll.
The statewide, the 5.63% Election 2024 swing delivered victory to the LNP with additional 17 seats, 16 from the ALP, plus the seat of MIRANI won from the incumbent who was re-elected in 2020 as a PHON candidate. This was no 45seat landslide as ushered in by the statewide 8% swing of Election 2012. However, the 11.24% swing in the ALP stronghold of CANQ was catastrophic. The LNP took nine (9) of the eleven (11) ALP seats, including historic wins in MACKAY and ROCKHAMPTON. Refer to Attachment H, REXIT.AU CANQ19 Election Result and Margins 2020 and 2024, which provides a ready comparison between the election results of 2020 and 2024, detailing successful party primary votes, two party preferred and margins in each of the 19 electorates.
Post Election 2024 the LNP hold 14 of the 19 CANQ electorates, two (2) more than won in Newman’s 2012 landslide. Though only five (5) have margins of less than 5%, with ten (10) CANQ electorates changing hands and the ALP electorate of CAIRNS falling to a margin of 2.48%, as many as 11seats could be in play in Election 2028.
For most part the ALP has made solid gains in 19 CANQ electorates since the return of ‘one vote one value’ in 1989 and the end of the National brand in 2008. Accordingly, the LNP hold on CANQ is tenuous, as the fate the one term Newman LNP government demonstrated. Expectations of the constituency is high and failure to deliver outcomes on juvenile crime, services and infrastructure will likely see many of the newly elected LNP members ‘booted out the gate in 28’.
2020 ALP Margin 6.30% - 2024 the LNP Margin 4.98%
a. There were only 339 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election, this is despite an increase of 2,678 enrolled voters, most of which enrolled in the six months prior to the 2023 Voice Referendum with 1181 enrolled in June 2023 alone;
b. Of the 36,590 enrolled voters, 27,399 (74.85%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the 4,670 increase in enrolled voters in COOK, was 84% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, adjusted for the Large Area Allowance, fell 3.00%, from 5.31% to 2.31%;
e. ALP - primary vote fell from 10,363(40.02%) in 2020 to 8744 (33.28%) in 2024;
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,306 (5.04%) to 1765 (6.73%);
g. PHON - primary vote increased marginally from 1,717 (6.63%) to 1832(6.98%);
h. KAP - ran a decorated police officer and community leader candidate in 2024 securing an increase of 700 in their primary vote, up from 4,458 (17.22%) to 5158 (19.67%) and they do not seem to have benefited overly from the drop of in the ALP primary vote. Preference flow saw KAP with 6,582 votes before it was excluded, of those 4,916 flowed to the LNP and 1,666 to ALP;
i. LNP - ran the former member for COOK, David Kemp (2012-15) and was the main beneficiary of the collapse of the ALP primary vote, increasing its 2020 primary vote from 6,241 (24.10%) to 8,728 (33.28%). The primary vote gain of 9.18% was little more than 1.6 times that of the 5.63% statewide average;
j. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 14,419 (54.98%) for LNP and 11,808 (45.02%) for the ALP;
k. Outlook, with the ALP primary vote falling from 40.02% to 33.34% and the LNP primary vote rising from 24.10% to 33.23%, minor party and independent preferences will again be critical in the 2028 election. Poor delivery of outcomes by the LNP will likely see the ALP readily reclaim lost ground in the 2028 election, as COOK, historically has been a safe ALP electorate. Unless the primary vote of either the ALP or LNP fall below 25%, there is little opportunity for a minor party or an independent candidate to win COOK;
l. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, COOK, voter enrolments were only 15% less than the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation in its Deviation from District Average, fell from -6.19% to -7.59%. However, adjustment for the LLA resulted in a fall from +5.31% to +2.31% and COOK should remain within the 10% tolerance till 2035. Accordingly, COOK should not be impacted by the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review unless issues of adjoining electorates cause a cascading effect;
m. There are some major concerns with the COOK Electoral Roll resulting from the more than 1,300 additional voters entered on the roll in the six months prior to the 2023 Referendum, of which 1,181 registered in June. While an uptick was to be expected, it concerning that, although there were 2,678 voters add to the electoral roll since the 2020 election, there were only 326 more ballots cast. With more than 25% of enrolled voters failing to cast a ballot, the new member for COOK needs to engage with the ECQ to have them validate their records and run information programs to encourage greater voter participation.
2020 ALP Margin 3.10% - 2024 LNP Margin 3.70%
a. There were 3273 more votes cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 3,928 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 41,420 enrolled voters, 35,715 (86.23%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the 6580 increase in enrolled voters in BARRON RIVER was 118% of the state average as the electorate continues to enjoy a population and new housing boom;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, increased 2.33%, from 1.91% to 4.24%;
e. ALP - primary vote fell from 12,385 (39.70%) to 11208 (32.71%). The 6.99% decline was on line with the state average;
f. GREENS -primary vote decreased by 570 from 4134 (13,17%) to 3564 (10.40%);
g. PHON - primary vote regained 1520, up from 1,852 (5.90%) to 3032 (8.85%) though still well short of the 4760 (16.78%) it secured in 2017;
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024;
i. Informed Medical Options Party - did not run a candidate in 2024;
j. KAP - run a candidate, securing 2851 (8.32%) primary votes. It would be reasonable to expect the KAP attracted many primary votes that would have otherwise been harvested by PHON. The KAP candidate was the first to be excluded in the preference count, with 1474votes flowing to PHON, 721 to LNP, 426 to ALP and 229 to GREENS;
k. LNP - candidate was a well profiled Cairns’ female entrepreneur and the primary vote increased slightly from 12,092 (38.53%) to 13,612 (39.72%). The primary vote gain of 1.19% was only about one fifth of the 5.63% statewide average. The LNP was the beneficiary of preference flows from both KAP and PHON;
l. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 18,403 (3.70%) for LNP and 15,864 (46.30%) for the ALP;
m. Outlook, with the ALP primary vote falling from 39.70% to 32.71% and the LNP primary vote rising marginally from 38.53% to 39.72%, minor party and independent preferences will again be critical in the 2028 election. Poor delivery of outcomes by the LNP will likely see the ALP readily reclaim lost ground in the 2028 election, though the demographics of BARRON RIVER is changing as a result of additional residents from beyond the region. However, unless the primary vote of either the ALP or LNP fall below 25%, there is little opportunity for a minor party or an independent candidate to win BARRON RIVER;
n. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, BARRON RIVER voter enrolments were 18% more than the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation in its Deviation from District Average, rose from +1.91% to +4.24%. The rate of voter enrolments in the electorate has eased in the past two years. BARRON RIVER would likely remain within the 10% tolerance till after 2035. Accordingly, it is unlikely to be any change to its electoral boundary as a result of the 2027 electoral boundary review. However, here may be a need to cede a small area to the adjoining electorate of CAIRNS where the increase in enrolled voters is only about 65% of the state average.
2020 ALP Margin 5.59% - 2024 Margin 2.48%
a. There were 1640 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 2,704 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 39,493 enrolled voters, 31,490 (79.75%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the 3,661 increase in enrolled voters in CAIRNS, was only 66% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, fell 5.60%, from 5.00% to -0.60%;
e. ALP - primary vote decreased from 12,727 (44.20%) to 10,900 (36.07%), down 8.13% a little more than the state average;
f. GREENS primary vote increased from 2,829 (9.82%) to 3,390 (11.22%);
g. PHON - with a new strong female candidate their primary vote rebounded from 1,707 (5.93%) to 5099 (16.87%);
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024;
i. Informed Medical Options Party - did not run a candidate in 2024;
j. KAP - again did not run a candidate;
k. LNP - fielded a new female candidate, (wife of the sitting Federal Liberal member for Leichhardt) who campaigned poorly and the primary vote decreased from 10,505 (36.48%) to 9,796 (32.41%). PHON was the main beneficiary of the poor LNP campaign in CAIRNS thought their preferences ultimately flowed back to the LNP. The primary vote LOSS of -4.07% was the reverse of the statewide average increase of 5.63%.
l. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 15,860 (52.48%) for ALP and 14,788 (47.52%) for the LNP;
m. Both the ALP and LNP primary vote fell, tracking in the low to mid 30s. While it will be difficult for a minor party or independent to win CAIRNS, the decline of both majors indicates that there is a thirst for an alternative;
n. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, CAIRNS voter enrolments were about 15% less than the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation in its Deviation from District Average, fell more than 5% from +5.00% to -0.60%. However, CAIRNS should remain within the 10% tolerance till 2035 but is in a position where, it could, if required, take overflow from adjoining electorates.
2020 ALP Margin 12.24% - 2024 LNP Margin 2.68%.
a. There were 1640 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 2,704 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 39,892 enrolled voters, 32,612 (81.75%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. With 10 candidates including three (3) independents, it was the largest field contesting any of the 93 state electorates;
d. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the 6,370 increase in enrolled voters in MULGRAVE, was 114.4% of the state average;
e. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, increased 0.91%, from -1.62% to -0.71%;
f. ALP - with the retirement of the incumbent, ran former Cairns’ councilor who lived outside the electorate as their candidate. Their primary vote fell from 14,254 (49.86%) to 7,384 (24.21%), a loss of three times the state average;
g. GREENS - primary vote decreased by 483 from 1,772 (6.29%) to 1289 (4.23%);
h. Legalise Cannabis Queensland ran a candidate securing 1804 primary votes (5.92%) while Family First ran a candidate securing 593 (1.95%) primary votes;
i. PHON - ran a new candidate from outside the area and his primary vote increased from 1,825 (6.38%) to 2,654 (8.70%) but again well short of the 6,158 (22.35%) it won in 2017;
j. KAP - ran a new local candidate increasing the primary vote from 3,395 (11.88%) votes to 4934 (16.18%). The candidate’s effective campaign saw him secure the third highest number of primary votes;
k. LNP - ran a former Cairns Council deputy mayor who lived outside the electorate as their candidate increasing their primary vote from 7,341 (25.68%) to 8,369 (27.44%). The primary vote gain of 1.76% was little more than one third of the 5.63% statewide average;
l. Independent candidates secured 3,470 (11.37%) primary votes. Had the flow of preferences from these independents been better negotiated, a minor party or independent may well have won MULGRAVE;
m. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 16,066 (52.68%) for LNP and 14,431 (47.32%) for the ALP;
n. With the ALP polling only 24.21% and LNP a mere 27.44%, minor party and independent preferences will again be critical in the 2028. However, with both major parties having a primary vote of about 25% preference deals will be critical and there is an opportunity for a good local minor party or independent candidate to win MULGRAVE in 2028;
o. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, MULGRAVE voter enrolments were 114% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV22 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, only rose from -1.62% to -0.71%. MULGRAVE is in a growth corridor with 1000s new homes planned over the next decade and as such will likely remain within the 10% tolerance till 2035 and should not be impacted by the scheduled 2024 Electoral Boundary Review unless issues of adjoining electorates have a cascading effect.
2020 KAP Margin 22.55% - 2024 Margin 13.73%
a. There were 2,486 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 3,717 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 41,704 enrolled voters, 35,916 (86.12%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the 5,422 increase in enrolled voters in HILL, was 97% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, fell 1.28%, from 6.64% to 5.36%;
e. The ALP - ran the same candidate and their primary vote decreased from 6,354 (19.70%) to 5250 (15.19%).
f. GREENS - ran the same candidate and her primary vote increased marginally from 2,083 (6.46%) to 2329 (6.74%);
g. PHON - after not contesting the 2020 Election ran new female candidate securing 2,375 (6.87%) primary votes. It would be reasonable these votes came mainly at the expense of the KAP candidate;
h. Informed Medical Options Party did not run a candidate and the single independent secured only 802 (2.32%) primary votes;
i. KAP - incumbent candidate’s primary vote fell from 16,970 (52.62%) to 15075 (43.61%). This fall was likely the result of PHON running a candidate;
j. LNP - candidate was a new face and his primary vote increased from 5,466 (16.95%) to 8,734 (25.27%) taking primary votes from both the ALP and KAP candidates. The primary vote gain of 8.32% was little less than 1.5 times that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 22,029(63.73%) for KAP and 12,523 (36.27%) for the LNP;
l. With the primary votes of the ALP and the LNP being 15.19% and 25.27% respectively, even if the KAP fell to the low 30% the historic trend of the preference flow would suggest that they would still retain HILL;
m. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, HILL voter enrolments were 87% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV22 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average fell from +6.64% to +4.63%;
n. While HILL can expect to remain within the 10% tolerance till 2035, it adjoins a cluster of electorates that have failed to keep pace with the state average increase in enrolled voters. The cluster of HINCHINBROOK, TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE, THURINGOWA, MUNDINGBURRA and BURDEKIN are well below the state average number of enrolled per electorate as at 30NOV24. It would not be unreasonable to expect the Electoral Boundary Review to recommend the abolition of one of these electorates to address the long-term trend of the short fall in new enrolment to keep pace with the state average.
2020 KAP Margin 22.55% - 2024 Margin 13.73%
a. There were 3,631 more votes cast in the 2020 Election than in the 2017 Election while 3,881 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 38,931 enrolled voters, 34,244 (87.96%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the increase in enrolled voters in HINCHIBROOK was 113% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, increased 2.26%, from -3.62% to -1.36%;
e. ALP - ran a new face female candidate but their primary vote fell from 5,723 (19.44%) to 4639 (14.03%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,010 (3.24%) to 1044 (3.16%);
g. Legalise Cannabis Queensland ran a candidate securing 1181 primary votes (3.57%).
h. PHON - after the collapse of 2020 their primary vote fell again from 2,097 (7.14%) to 1523 (4.60%);
i. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024;
j. KAP - primary vote again increased from 12,522 (42.54%) to 15351 (46.42%) and seems to have been the beneficiary of the decline in both the ALP and PHON primary votes.
k. LNP - candidate was a new female candidate that lived outside the electorate and increased their primary vote from 7,342 (24.94%) to 9331 (28.22%). The primary vote gain of 3.28% was little more than half that of the 5.63% statewide average;
l. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 20,889 (63.17%) for KAP and 12,180 (36.83%) for the LNP;
m. With the primary votes of the ALP and the LNP being 14.03% and 28.22% respectively, even if the KAP fell to the low 30% the historic trend of the preference flow would suggest that they would still retain HINCHINBROOK. It is again worth noting that as in 2020 on exclusion of the ALP candidate about two thirds if preferences flowed to the KAP;
n. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, HINCHINBROOK voter enrolments were 13% more than the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, rose from -3.62% to -1.36%.
o. With its above average increase in voter enrolments HINCHINBROOK is likely to remain within the 10% tolerance till 2034. However, the issue for HINCHINBROOK is, that together with the electorates of TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE, THURINGOWA, MUNDINGBURRA and BURDEKIN they form a cluster of electorates that all have a negative variation from the Deviation from District Average. MUNDINGBURRA has already exceeded the -10% tolerance while TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE and BURDEKIN are likely to exceed the -10% tolerance prior to 2034. Accordingly, it is reasonable that the Electoral Boundary Review will result the redrawing of boundaries to address the long- term trend of the short fall in new enrolments to keep pace with the state average;
p. While HINCHINBROOK would likely to remain in tolerance through to 2034 it may be impacted by the Electoral Boundary Review remedy to address the issues confronting adjoining electorates.
2020 KAP Margin 24.72% - 2024 Margin 13.73%
a. There were 470 LESS ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election, while 1,310 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 27,696 enrolled voters, 20,632 (74.49%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the increase in enrolled voters in TRAEGER was only 34% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, adjusted for the Large Area Allowance, fell 17.48% from 8.69% to - 8.79% (this change has been distorted by the 2017 transfer of a vast area of TRAEGER to GREGORY which reduced its LAA;
e. ALP - ran a new female candidate and their primary vote fell from 4,219 (20.61%) to 3,024 (15.17%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 460 (2.25%) to 689 (3.46%);
g. PHON - ran a candidate securing 1,349 (6.77%) primary votes;
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024;
i. KAP - primary vote fell markedly from 12,047 (58.85%) to 9,831 (49.32%), it is reasonable to attribute this decline to PHON running a candidate and the improvement in the LNP primary vote;
j. LNP - ran a new face female candidate and her primary vote increased noticeably from 3,284 (16.04%) to 5,039 (25.28%). The primary vote gain of 9.24% was little more than 1.6 times that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 12,703 (63.73%) for the KAP and 7,229 (36.27%) for the LNP;
l. With the primary votes of the ALP and the LNP being 15.17% and 25.28% respectively, even if the KAP fell to the low 30% the historic trend of the preference flow would suggest that they would still retain TRAEGER. It is again worth noting that as in 2020 on exclusion of the ALP candidate about two thirds if preferences flowed to the KAP;
m. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, TRAEGER voter enrolments are a major concern as they were only 34% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, adjusted for the Large Area Allowance, only fell -0.10% from - 8.69% to -8.79% it unlikely to remain within the -10% voter tolerance till 2034;
n. TRAEGER will likely be impacted by the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, as it and an adjoining a cluster of electorates HINCHINBROOK, TOWNSVILLE, THURINGOWA, MUNDINGBURRA and BURDEKIN have significant negative Enrolled Voter Deviations from District Average and with exception of HINCHINBROOK all failed to keep pace with the state average increase of enrolled voters for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24.
o. MUNDINGBURRA, already exceeds the -10% tolerance while TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE and BURDEKIN are likely to exceed the -10% tolerance prior to 2035. Accordingly, it is reasonable that the Electoral Boundary Review will result the redrawing of boundaries of this cluster to address the long-term trend of the short fall in new enrolments to keep pace with the state average.
p. There are some major concerns with the TRAEGER Electoral Roll. While there were 1,310 voters added to the electoral roll since the 2020 election, there were 470 LESS ballots cast in the 2024 Election. Like COOK, more than 25% of enrolled voters in TRAEGER failed to cast a ballot. The member for TRAEGER needs to engage with the ECQ to have them validate their records and run information programs to encourage greater voter participation.
2020 ALP Margin 3.12% - LNP 2024 Margin 5.60%
a. There were 2,021 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election, while 2,537 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 37,874 enrolled voters, 31,230 (82.46%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the increase in enrolled voters in TOWNSVILLE was 65% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, fell 4.91% from 0.20% to -4.71%;
e. ALP - primary vote for the incumbent member fell from 10,289 (36.20%) to 8921 (29.80%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased slightly from 2366 (8.32%) to 2428 (8.11%);
g. PHON - primary vote after the collapse from 5,611 (19.92%) of 2017 to 1,293 (4.55%) in 2020, it remained stalled in 2024 at 1222(4.08%);
h. UAP - and NQ First did not run candidates while minor party, Family First and an independent secured a total of 1249 primary votes;
i. KAP - ran a new face candidate, a former female ALP connected Townsville councilor as their candidate, increasing the primary vote slightly from 3204 (11.27%) to 3,770 (12.59%);
j. LNP - candidate was a new face and the primary vote increased from 9,505 (33.45%) to 12,346 (41.24%). The primary vote gain of 7.79% was little less than 1.4 times that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 16,644 (55.60%) for LNP and 13,292 (44.40%) for the ALP;
l. The KAP brand still struggles to make ground outside ‘Katter country’ and unless it can widen its appeal, which may require rebranding, it has been, like PHON, been merely mopping up those centre right voters who simply preference the LNP ahead of the ALP, GREENS and other radicals. Until some minor party can secure at least 25% of the primary vote then TOWNSVILLE will remain a tussle between the ALP and LNP;
m. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, TOWNSVILLE voter enrolments were less than 65% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, has fallen from 0.20% to -4.71%;
n. Together with HINCHINBROOK, TRAEGER, THURINGOWA, MUNDINGBURRA and BURDEKIN, TOWNSVILLE has a significant negative Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average and with exception of HINCHINBROOK, all have failed to keep pace with the state average increase of enrolled voters for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24;
o. MUNDINGBURRA, already exceeds the -10% tolerance while TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE and BURDEKIN are likely to exceed the -10% tolerance prior to 2034. Accordingly, it is reasonable that the Electoral Boundary Review will result the redrawing of boundaries to address the long-term trend of the short fall in new enrolments to keep pace with the state average.
2020 ALP Margin 4.15% - LNP 2024 Margin 9.93%
a. There were 1755 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 2,575 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 38,591 enrolled voters, 32,230 (84.41%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the increase of 3,996 in enrolled voters in THURINGOWA was little more than 71% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, fell 4.32% from 1.74 to -2.58%;
e. ALP - primary vote fell from 10,922 (36.83%) to 9,102 (29.34%);
f. GREENS - primary vote decreased from 1,476 (4.98%) to 1,392 (4.49%);
g. PHON - primary vote after the collapse from 5,878 (20.15%) in 2017 to 2,907 (9.80%) in 2020, it further fell in 2024 to 1996 (6.43%);
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, through an indigenous female independent candidate secured 1216 primary votes;
i. KAP - ran a new candidate and the primary vote fell slightly from 4780 (16.12%) to 4348 (14.01%). KAP has made little headway and has not benefited from the continued decline of the PHON primary vote.
j. LNP - ran the same female candidate, increasing her primary vote markedly from 9,022 (30.42%) to 12,970 (41.81%). The LNP seems to be the beneficiary of the decline in both the ALP and PHON primary vote. The primary vote gain of 11.39% was twice that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 18,592 (59.93%) for LNP and 12,432 (40.07%) for the ALP;
l. Although THURINGOWA borders on ‘Katter country’ the brand still struggles to make ground even here. Until some minor party can secure at least 25% in primary or flow down preference votes then THURINGOWA will remains a tussle between the ALP and LNP;
m. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, THURINGOWA voter enrolments were 71% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell from +1.74% to -2.58%;
n. Together with HINCHINBROOK, TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE, MUNDINGBURRA and BURDEKIN, THURINGOWA has a significant negative Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average and with exception of HINCHINBROOK all failed to keep pace with the state average increase of enrolled voters for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24;
o. MUNDINGBURRA, already exceeds the -10% tolerance, with TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE and BURDEKIN likely to exceed the -10% tolerance prior to 2035 and while THURINGOWA may remain within the 10% tolerance, it will likely be approaching the negative limit. Additionally, having common boundaries with HINCHINBROOK, TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE, MUNDINGBURRA and BURDEKIN it is reasonable that the Electoral Boundary Review could ‘slice and dice’ THURINGOWA to provide a resolution for the deteriorating situation of the cluster.
2020 ALP Margin 3.93% - LNP 2024 Margin 9.21%
a. There were 1,136 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 1,733 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 35,138 enrolled voters, 30,138 (86.63%) cast a vote in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the increase of 2,034 in enrolled voters in MUNDINGBURRA was little more than 36% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, fell 8.65% from -2.83% to -11.48%;
e. ALP - primary vote fell from 10,839 (38.22%) to 8,864 (30.20%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,953 (6.89%) to 2,255 (7.68%);
g. PHON - primary vote after its collapse from 4,652 (16.67%) in 2017 to 1,323 (4.67%) in 2020, improved little in 2024 to 1,405 (4.79%);
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, while the Legalise Cannabis did not run a candidate;
i. KAP - ran a new candidate increasing the primary vote slightly from 3,448 (12.16%) to 3,808 (12.97%). This telling as the KAP, even with the continuing poor performance of PHON and the significant fall in the ALP primary vote, failed to make any ground and continues to have a brand problem even in electorates bordering ‘Katter Country’;
j. LNP - ran a new face female candidate and their primary votes increased from 9,170 (32.33%) to 13,020 (44.36%). The primary vote gain of 12.03% was little more than twice that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 17,380 (59.21%) for LNP and 11,972 (40.71%) for the ALP;
l. Though MUNDINGBURRA borders on ‘Katter Country’, the brand still struggles to make ground even here and it has benefited little from the continuing decline of the PHON primary vote. With the LNP primary vote now low 44% and ALP securing 30%, the opportunity for minor party or an independent candidate to take the challenge up to them is much diminished.
m. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, MUNDINGBURRA voter enrolments were less than 37% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell -8.65% from -2.83% to -11.48%;
n. Together with HINCHINBROOK, TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE, THURINGOWA and BURDEKIN, MUNDINGBURRA has a significant negative Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average and with exception of HINCHINBROOK all failed to keep pace with the state average increase of enrolled voters for the period 30NOV17 to 30NOV24;
o. MUNDINGBURRA, already exceeds the -10% tolerance while TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE and BURDEKIN are likely to exceed the -10% tolerance prior to 2035. Undoubtably, the electoral boundary of MUNDINGBURRA will need to be redrawn as a result of the 2027 Electoral Boundary Review to a catchment for more enrolled voters. However, with similar problems facing surrounding electorates the cascading effect may result in MUNDINGBURRA being considered as an alternative to THURINGOWA for abolishment to both address the deteriorating situation with the cluster as well as to enable the provision of an additional electorate for SEQ.
2020 LNP Margin 7.05% - 2024 Margin 15.80%
a. There were 1,186 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 1,517 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 36,437 enrolled voters, 31,900 (87.55%) cast a vote in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30NOV17 and 30NOV24, the increase in enrolled voters in BURDEKIN was little more than 50% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, fell -8.88% from 0.99% to -7.89%;
e. ALP - ran a new female candidate and their primary vote fell from 9,425 (31.73%) to 8,102 (26.27%);
f. Greens - primary vote increased from 600 (2.02%) to 808 (2.62%);
g. PHON - primary vote after its collapse from 8,587 (29.34%) in 2017 to 2,080 (7.00%) in 2020, improved little in 2024 to 2342; (7.59%);
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, though Family First ran a candidate securing 922 (2.99%) primary votes while Animal Justice and North Queensland First did not run candidates;
i. KAP - ran a new candidate and the primary vote fell significantly from 4212 (14.18%) to 2630 (8.53%). Again, the KAP failed to capitalize on the continued poor performance of PHON primary vote nor did it attract primary votes from the decline in support for the ALP;
j. LNP - incumbent increased his primary vote from 11,792 (39.70%) to 16,035 (52.00%). With the additional 4,243 primary votes it appears that the LNP was the direct beneficiary of the fall in both the ALP and KAP primary vote as well as those of newly enrolled voters. The primary vote gain of 12.30% was more than twice that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 20,293 (65.80%) for LNP and 10,546 (34.20%) for the ALP;
l. Though BURDEKIN borders on ‘Katter Country’, the brand still struggles for support and its primary vote dropped significantly. With the ALP primary vote falling to 26.27%, a minor party or independent will need to significantly cut into the LNP primary vote as was done in 2017 to make a contest in the BURDEKIN.
m. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, BURDEKIN voter enrolments were little more than 50% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell -8.88% from +0.99% to -7.64%;
n. Together with HINCHINBROOK, TRAEGER, TOWNSVILLE, THURINGOWA and MUNDINGBURRA, BURDEKIN, has a significant negative Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average and with exception of HINCHINBROOK all failed to keep pace with the state average increase of enrolled voters for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24;
o. BURDEKIN will likely exceed the -10% tolerance by 2034 and like MUNDINGBURRA will need to be redrawn as a result of the 2027 Electoral Boundary Review to increase its catchment of enrolled voters. However, with similar problems facing surrounding electorates including TRAEGER, THURINGOWA, MIRANI, GREGORY and WHITSUNDAY to a lesser extent, the cascading effect may result in one of the surrounding electorates being considered for abolishment in lieu of THURINGOWA to provide SEQ with an additional electorate.
2020 LNP Margin 3.26% - 2024 Margin 18.47%
a. There were 3,222 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2029 Election while 3,789 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 38,613 enrolled voters 33,537 (86.85%) cast a vote in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30 November 2017 and 30 November 2024 the increase in enrolled voters in WHITSUNDAY was 113% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24 increased 2.97% from -5.49% to -2.52%;
e. ALP - ran a new candidate in 2024 and their primary vote fell from 9,523 (32.61%) to 7,264 (22.62%) to;
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,134 (3.88%) to 1,570 (4.89%);
g. PHON - ran a new female candidate and their primary vote increased from 2742 (9.39%) to 5,380 (16.75%) returning to near its 2017 level. This improvement may be attributable to the former NQ First candidate who secured 2735 primary votes in the 2020 Election not running;
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, while the Legalise Cannabis and North Queensland First did not run candidates. Family First ran a candidate, securing 962 (2.99%) primary votes;
i. KAP - The did not run a candidate and it is likely PHON was the beneficiary;
j. LNP - the incumbent’s primary vote increased from 9,592 (32.85%) to 16,941 (52.75%). The primary vote gain of 19.24% was little more than 3.5 times that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 21,992 (68.47%) for LNP and 10,125 (31.53%) for the ALP;
l. With the LNP and ALP primary votes together being more than 75% of the total votes it offers little opportunity for a minor party or independent candidate to secure WHITSUNDAY. However, after voter enthusiasm to send the three term ALP government packing in 2024, it is likely that the LNP margin will be trimmed in the next election unless their performance exceeds voter expectations. PHON’s securing of nearly 17% indicates that there is still an appetite for an alternative to two major parties though it seems to be that it needs to be something other than PHON. Until a minor party or independent candidate secure enough primary votes and flow of preferences to get ahead of one of the two major parties WHITSUNDAY will be stuck with the usual two horse race;
m. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, WHITSUNDAY voter enrolments were healthy 113% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, increased 2.97% from -5.49% to -2.52%;
n. WHITSUNDAY is likely to remain within the 10% voter tolerance through to 2035 and it is reasonable to expect that its boundaries will remain unaltered as a result of the of 2027 Electoral Boundary Review.
2020 PHON Margin 8.98% - LNP 0.97%
a. There were 2,888 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 3,101 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 37,242 enrolled voters, 33,475 (89.89%) cast a vote in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30 November 2017 and 30 November 2024 the increase in enrolled voters in MIRANI was about 92% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24 fell 0.51%, from -5.41% to -5.92%;
e. ALP - ran a new face female candidate in 2024 and their primary vote fell from 9,412 (31.77%) to 6,521 (20.35%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 715 (2.43%) to 1,043 (3.25%);
g. PHON - the two-term incumbent was disendorsed a few months prior to the election and they ran a new female candidate which saw their primary vote plummeted from 9,320 (31.97%) to 3,804 (11.87%). In addition to disendorsing their former member, PHON preferenced the LNP candidate resulting in a 2PP, 612 vote win by the LNP over the incumbent. PHON no longer has a member in the Queensland parliament.
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, while the Civil Liberties & Motorists and North Queensland First did not run candidates. Family First ran a candidate, securing 911 (2.84%) primary votes;
i. KAP - the incumbent and former PHON member joined the KAP only weeks out from the election, running as their candidate and his primary vote fell from 9,320 (31.97%) to 8,017 (25.02%). It would seem that the KAP branding added nought to his campaign;
j. LNP - ran a new candidate who increased their primary vote from 8,123 (27.59%) to 11,750 (36.67%). The primary vote gain of 9.08% was little more than 1.6 times that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 16,333 (50.97%) for LNP and 15,713 (49.03%) for the KAP;
l. With the ALP primary vote falling to 20% and the LNP primary vote only nudging 37% there is an opportunity for a minor party or independent to win MIRANI in 2028;
m. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, MIRANI voter enrolments were a 92% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell -0.51% from -5.41% to -5.92%. On current trends MIRANI should remain within the - 10% voter tolerance until 2035. However, there are numerous North Queensland electorates, already exceeding or likely to exceed the -10% voter tolerance by 2035 which will necessitate significant redrawing of electorate boundaries as a result of the 2027 Electoral Boundary Review. Additionally, there is a likelihood that one will be considered for abolishment to provide SEQ with an additional electorate;
n. MIRANI, with its long 400km north south length and bordering of eight (8) other electorates, many of which have electoral enrolment rates below the state average and their number of enrolled voters are already well below the average, it is a likely to be subject boundary adjustment or being identified for abolishment in lieu of THURINGOWA.
2020 ALP Margin 6.72% - LNP 2024 Margin 10.20%
a. There were 1,701 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 2,201 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 40,400 enrolled voters, 34,504 (85.41%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30 November 2017 and 30 November 2024 the increase in enrolled voters in MACKAY was 67% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24 fell 5.12%, from 7.08% to 1.96%;
e. ALP - the female incumbent resigned prior to the election and the ALP ran another female candidate who had been serving as a Mackay councilor and their primary vote fell from 14,632 (46.47%) to 9,985 (30.30%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,071 (3.40%) to 1,635 (4.96%);
g. PHON - primary vote after its collapse from 7,009 (22.65%) in 2017 to 3,965 (12.59%) in 2020, fell slightly further in 2024 to 3,864 (11.73%);
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, while the Civil Liberties & Motorists and Informed Medical Options Party did not run candidates. Family First ran a candidate, securing 689 (2.09%) primary votes.
i. Legalize Cannabis Party - primary votes increased from 1,378 (4.38%) to 1,655 (4.93%);
j. KAP - did not run candidates in 2017, 2020 or 2024. The KAP brand does not extend to MACKAY even through it is considered by many as NQ;
k. LNP - ran a new face candidate and the primary vote increased from 10,061 (31.95%) to 15,155 (45.99%). The primary vote gain of 14.04% was more than twice that of the 5.63% statewide average;
l. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 17,862 (60.20%) for ALP and 13,627 (39.80%) for the LNP;
m. MACKAY, until now has had only five (5) members since 1915 and all have been ALP members. This historic LNP victory may be short lived if it fails to meet voters’ expectations. Now with the ALP primary vote still in excess of 30% and the LNP now nudging 46% there is little opportunity for a minor party or independent candidate victory in MACKAY in 2028 and it seems to likely to be a two-horse race between the ALP and LNP.
n. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, MACKAY voter enrolments were a concerning 66% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV22 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell -3.81% from +7.08% to +3.27%;
o. Though MACKAY new voter enrolments have been only 66% of the state average and the downward trend is expected to continue, it is likely to remain within the 10% tolerance till 2035. Accordingly, it is doubtful that MACKAY will be impacted by the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review unless issues with adjoining electorates have a cascading effect.
2020 LNP Margin 17.25% - 2024 Margin 21.04%
a. There were 793more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 1,487 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 26,272 enrolled voters, 22,043 (83.14%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30 November 2017 and 30 November 2024 the increase in enrolled voters in GREGORY was only 32% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24, adjusted for the Large Area Allowance, fell from -9.14% to -10.64%;
e. The ALP ran a new face female candidate and their primary vote decreased from to 5,121 (24.77%) to 4,486 (21.01%).
f. GREENS primary vote increased from 580 (2.81%) to 644 (3.02%);
g. PHON - primary vote after its collapse from 5,113 (24.22%) in 2017 to 2,861 (13.84%) in 2020, improved little in 2024 to 2,977 (13.94%);
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, while the Civil Liberties & Motorists Party and Informed Medical Options Party did not run candidates. Family First ran a candidate, securing 993 (4.65%) primary votes;
i. KAP- Though GREGORY borders ‘Katter Country’, the KAP did not run candidates in the 2017, 2020 or 2024 Elections. However, with PHON making no headway in the electorate they may want reconsider that in 2028;
j. LNP - with the retirement of the incumbent member the LNP ran a new candidate and increased their primary vote from 11,197 (54.16%) to 12,249 (57.38%). The primary vote gain of 3.22% was less than that of the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 15,167 (71.04%) for LNP and 6,182 (28.96%) for the ALP;
l. While the ALP primary vote continues to struggle to breach 25%, there is still an opportunity for a well-positioned minor party or independent to make contest of the election for GREGORY.
m. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, GREGORY voter enrolments were only 32% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell from - 9.14% to -10.64%, exceeding the -10% voter tolerance;
n. GREGORY will be impacted by the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, as it and adjoining electorates have failed to keep pace with the state average increase in enrolled voters. Even with its Large Electorate Allowance, GREGORY is already -10.64% below the Deviation from District Average. With enrolled voter numbers increasing at less than 35% of the state average, the situation will continue to deteriorate. Thus, its boundary will need to be enlarged to harvest additional voters to ensure it remains within the 10% tolerance till at least 2035.
2020 ALP Margin 5.63% - LNP 2024 Margin 10.48%
a. There were 3,079 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 3,342 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 40,394 enrolled voters, 36,441 (90.23%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30 November 2017 and 30 November 2024 the increase in enrolled voters in KEPPEL was 103% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years as at 30NOV24 increased 0.12%, from 1.93% to 2.05%;
e. ALP - the primary vote of the female incumbent fell from 14,632 (46.22%) to 10,376 (29.52%)
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1291 (3.99%) to 1668 (4.75%);
g. PHON – ran a high-profile party executive candidate and their primary vote increased from 5,069 (15.65%) to 8,807 (25.06%) which was similar to their 2017 Election result;
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, while the Legalise Cannabis Queensland Party and Informed Medical Options Party did not run candidates. However, Family First ran a candidate, securing 804 (2.29%) primary votes and an independent candidate secured 806 (2.29%) primary votes;
i. KAP - brand does not extend to KEPPEL;
j. LNP - ran a new face candidate and the primary vote increased from 9,576 (29.57%) to 12,684 (36.09%). The primary vote gain of 6.52% was about 15% above the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 21,254 (60.48%) for LNP and 13,891 (39.52%) for the ALP;
l. KEPPEL was won by the LNP in the 2012 Newman Landslide and was previously a National Party electorate from 1992 through to 2004. Since 2015 the LNP had struggled to secure 30% of the primary vote. Now with the ALP having a primary vote of a little less than 30% and the LNP a whisker over 36% preferences will be critical in 2028. While there is some opportunity for minor party or independent candidate of making a contest it is depended on the primary vote of one major party’s falling to the mid 20%.
m. In respect to the scheduled Electoral Boundary Review, KEPPEL voter enrolments are a healthy 103% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, only fell from +1.93% to +1.85%;
n. With new voter enrolments, running at slightly more than the state average and with the currently its enrolled voter number 1.85% more than the state average, it would be reasonable to expect that these current levels, KEPPEL will remain within the required 10% tolerance till 2035. However, the situation in the neighbouring ROCKHAMPTON is problematic and there is a possibility that some small southern section of KEPPEL could be ceded to ROCKHAMPTON.
2020 ALP Margin 8.62% LNP Margin 1.81%
a. There were 2401 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 2,411 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 38,935 enrolled voters, 33,876 (87.01%) cast a ballot in 20204;
c. For the seven (7) years between 30 November 2017 and 30 November 2024 the increase in enrolled voters in ROCKHAMPTON was 68% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24 fell 4.95%, from 3.93% to -1.67%,
e. ALP – the incumbent resigned prior to the election requiring the ALP ran a new candidate and their primary vote fell from 13,289 (44.32%) to 9,774 (30.30%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,025 (3.42%) to 1,214 (4.83%);
g. PHON - primary vote after its collapse from 6,521 (21.39%) in 2017 to 3,714 (12.39%) in 2020, increase slightly in 2024 to 4,382 (13.54%);
h. UAP - we were spared the dysfunction of the Palmer media circus in 2024, while the Informed Medical Options Party did not run a candidate. Legalise Cannabis Queensland Party primary vote increased from 1,189 (3.97%) to 1,279 (3.83%) and Family First ran a candidate, securing 671 (2.07%) primary votes.
i. KAP – while running a candidate in 2020 and securing only 1,151 primary votes they did not run a candidate in 2024.
j. Independents – while Dominic Doblo whom secured 2000 primary votes in 2020 did not run, former Rockhampton mayor Margaret Strelow ran as an independent and secured 5,780 (17.86%) primary votes. Last to be excluded, she had 8,122 votes and the preference flow saw 4,659 go to the LNP and 3,463 to the ALP.
k. LNP - ran a new face female candidate and their primary vote increased from 7,118 (23.74%) to 9,243 (28.55%) but still 531 short of the ALP primary vote. The LNP was the prime beneficiary of the preference flow from both PHON and the Independent, Margaret Strelow;
l. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 16,772 (51.81%) for LNP and 15,598 (48.19%) for the ALP;
m. Though breaking through for a historic win, the LNP again failed to breech 30% of the primary vote while the ALP has fallen to 30%. Should either party fall to the low to mid 20% there is a very real opportunity for good local candidate running for either a minor party or as an independent to win ROCKHAMPTON. However, their candidates would have to be pounding the pavement to cement their commitment to the constituency at least 12months ahead of the 2028 election.
n. ROCKHAMPTON, until now has been held by the ALP since 1932 and the LNP hold is tenuous at best with mere 1.8% margin. Failure of the LNP to meet voter expectations resulting in even a minor decline in their primary vote would likely see the incumbent being ‘booted out the gate in 28’.
o. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, ROCKHAMPTON voter enrolments were only 68% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell - 4.95% from +3.28% to -1.79%;
p. While ROCKHAMPTON has an issue with its new voter enrolments being much low than state average over the past seven years, it is unlikely that it will exceed the -10% tolerance prior to 2035. However, there is the possibility that 2027 the Electoral Boundary Review could, in an effort equalize adjoining electorates, cede some bordering ballot boxes from Keppel to ROCKHAMPTON.
2020 ALP Margin 23.49% - 2024 Margin 9.21%
a. There were 3,199 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 3,544 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 37,135 enrolled voters, 32,741 (88.17%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years to 30 November 2024, the increase in enrolled voters in GLADSTONE was 102% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24 increased 1.05%, from -6.91% to -5.867%;
e. ALP - primary vote of the incumbent fell from 18,429 (64.40%) to 14,067 (44.89%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,011 (3.53%) to 1,722 (5.50%);
g. PHON - primary vote increased from 3,677 (12.85%) in 2020 to 4,497 (14.35%) in 2024;
h. Minors - Legalise Cannabis Queensland ran a candidate securing 1403 (4.48%) primary votes and the Family First candidate secured 668 (2.13%) primary votes. While the primary vote of the same independent fell from 1162 (4.06%) to 901 (2.88%);
i. KAP - brand does not extend to GLADSTONE;
j. LNP ran a new face candidate and the primary vote increased from 4,339 (15.16%) to 8,076 (25.77%). The primary vote gain of 10.61% was near 2 times the 5.63% statewide average;
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 18,554 for ALP and 12,780 for the LNP;
l. The ALP still has a firm hold on GLADSTONE and the best thing that could be said about the situation in respect to centre, centre right parties is that, at least, a large number of rusted on ALP voters are concentrated in this one electorate rather than being spread out in other seats. It is amazing that so many in this electorate support a party which embraces policies which threaten the viability of the very industries that the electorate depends on;
m. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, GLADSTONE voter enrolments were 102% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, improved by 1.05%, from -6.91% to -5.86%;
n. The situation in regards to new voter enrolments in GLADSTONE has improved markedly since the end of COVID and it should remain within the 10% tolerance voter till 2035. However, with a deviation of -5.68% there is the possibility that the 2027 the Electoral Boundary Review could, in an effort equalize adjoining electorates, cede some bordering ballot boxes from the adjoining electorate of BURNETT which has a Deviation of +6.30%, to GLADSTONE.
2020 LNP Margin 15.83% 2024 Margin 23.18%
a. There were 2,728 more ballots cast in the 2024 Election than in the 2020 Election while 2,575 voters had been added to the electoral roll for the same period;
b. Of the 36,482 enrolled voters, 33,907 (89.49%) cast a ballot in 2024;
c. For the seven (7) years to 30 November 2024 the increase in enrolled voters in CALLIDE was 65% of the state average;
d. Enrolled Voter Deviation from District Average for the seven (7) years to 30NOV24 fell -4.46%, from -3.33% to -7.79%;
e. The ALP ran a new faced female candidate and their primary vote fell from 7,463 (25.71%) to 5,411 (17.81%);
f. GREENS - primary vote increased from 1,147 (3.95%) to 1,279 (4.06%);
g. PHON – while not running a candidate in 2020, PHON ran a candidate securing 4978 (15.80%) well short of their 2017 Election result when they secured 7,408 (25.63%) primary votes, outpolling the ALP and made the 2PP;
h. KAP – again, did not run a candidate in 2024;
i. Others - Family First ran a candidate, securing 912 (2.90%) primary votes while an independent secured 804 (2.55%) primary votes;
j. LNP - incumbent lost ground percentage wise though increasing his primary vote from 16,608 (57.20%) to 17,917 (56.88%);
k. The final preference flow saw a 2PP of 23,053 (73.18%) for LNP and 8,448 (26.82%) for the ALP;
l. Currently the LNP wins CALLIDE on primary votes, though in 2017 when both PHON and KAP ran candidates the LNP primary vote was just 33%. With the ALP primary vote at only 18% there is still a slight opportunity for a well-positioned minor party or independent to make contest for the election for CALLIDE in the 2028 election, especially if the new LNP government doesn’t meet the constituency’s expectation.
m. In respect to the scheduled 2027 Electoral Boundary Review, Boundary Review, CALLIDE voter enrolments were only 65% of the state average for the period 30NOV17 and 30NOV24 while the variation of its Deviation from District Average, fell markedly from -3.33% to -7.79%. On current trends CALLIDE will likely exceed the -10% voter tolerance prior to the 2027 review.
n. History has shown that CALLIDE boundaries have been routinely altered as a result of past Electoral Boundary Reviews, so much so, that over the decades, the electorate has, in parts, drifted into the southern division of Queensland, such that it includes the township of Bell which is a mere 165km north-west of Brisbane. CALLIDE boundaries adjoin seven (7) other electorates all with significant Deviation from District Average, both positive and negative.
o. Adding to the complexity is the rapid increase in voter numbers in the coastal electorates of Wide Bay including BURNETT (6.30%), HERVEY BAY (13.07%), MARYBOROUGH (9.23%) and GYMPIE (12.30%) which will necessitate that these electorates cede area and voters to adjacent electorates through the redrawing boundaries. With neighbouring NARANGO already 4.10% above the district average, it is not well positioned to absorb additional areas and voters of these rapid growth Wide Bay electorates.
p. To the north and west of CALLIDE the electorates of GLADSTONE (-5.86%) MIRANI (-5.92%), BURDEKIN (-7.89%) GREGORY (-10.64%) and WARREGO (-3.38%) will all need to have their boundaries extended to capture additional voters. As consequence, western and northern CALLIDE will likely need to be ceded to provide a redistribution of voters to be cascaded to these electorates. In effect CALLIDE will shrink and move to the south and east such that it will be fully in the Southern Division of Queensland.
The President
Bill Bates
Email: president@rexit.au
Ph: 0447958455
The Secretary
Matt Moloney
Email: secretary@rexit.au
Ph: 0491163527
The Secretary,
REXIT (Qld).
PO. Box 94, Edge Hill, 4870
REXIT.AU ABN 45 434 420 070